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Relevant, accessible, rigorous.
Economic policy analysis by experts worldwide. |
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Current issue: Issue 55, July 2008
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Editors' introduction
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The 35-hour workweek in France: Straightjacket or welfare improvement?
Marcello Estevão, Filipa Sá
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Investigating capitalism aversion
Augustin Landier, David Thesmar, Mathias Thoenig
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Competition in off-patent drug markets: Issues, regulation and evidence
Panos Kanavos, Joan Costa-Font, Elizabeth Seeley
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Predictability of aid: Do fickle donors undermine aid effectiveness?
Oya Celasun, Jan Walliser
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Free article of the month |
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Will there be a dollar crisis? (Issue 51, July 2007)
by Paul Krugman
Almost everyone believes that the US current account deficit must eventually end, and that this end will involve dollar depreciation. However, many believe that this depreciation will take place gradually. This paper shows that any process of gradual dollar decline fast enough to prevent the accumulation of implausible levels of US external debt would impose capital losses on investors much larger than they currently expect. As a result, there will at some point have to be a 'Wile E. Coyote moment'– a point at which expectations are revised, and the dollar drops sharply. It is much less clear, however, whether this 'crisis' will produce macroeconomic problems.
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