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Relevant, accessible, rigorous.
Economic policy analysis by experts worldwide. |
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Current issue: Issue 61, January 2010
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Editors' introduction
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The governance and performance of universities: evidence from Europe and the US
Philippe Aghion, Mathias Dewatripont, Caroline Hoxby, Andreu Mas-Colell, André Sapir
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Reforms and re-elections in OECD countries
Marco Buti, Alessandro Turrini, Paul Van den Noord, Pietro Biroli
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The effects of employment protection legislation and financial market imperfections on investment: evidence from a firm-level panel of EU countries
Federico Cingano, Marco Leonardi, Julián Messina, Giovanni Pica
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Drugs policy: what should we do about cannabis?
Stephen Pudney
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Free article of the month |
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Will there be a dollar crisis? (Issue 51, July 2007)
by Paul Krugman
Almost everyone believes that the US current account deficit must eventually end, and that this end will involve dollar depreciation. However, many believe that this depreciation will take place gradually. This paper shows that any process of gradual dollar decline fast enough to prevent the accumulation of implausible levels of US external debt would impose capital losses on investors much larger than they currently expect. As a result, there will at some point have to be a 'Wile E. Coyote moment'– a point at which expectations are revised, and the dollar drops sharply. It is much less clear, however, whether this 'crisis' will produce macroeconomic problems.
Read more
Read other articles from the archive
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Economic Policy is now available in JSTOR! |
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