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Relevant, accessible, rigorous.
Economic policy analysis by experts worldwide. |
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Current issue: Issue 56, October 2008
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Editors' introduction
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Labour market institutions and income inequality
Daniele Checchi, Cecilia García-Peñalosa
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From individual attitudes towards migrants to migration policy outcomes: Theory and evidence
Giovanni Facchini, Anna Maria Mayda
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Social spending and automatic stabilizers in the OECD
Julia Darby, Jacques Melitz
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Declining discount rates: Economic justifications and implications for long-run policy
Christian Gollier, Phoebe Koundouri, Theologos Pantelidis
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Free article of the month |
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Will there be a dollar crisis? (Issue 51, July 2007)
by Paul Krugman
Almost everyone believes that the US current account deficit must eventually end, and that this end will involve dollar depreciation. However, many believe that this depreciation will take place gradually. This paper shows that any process of gradual dollar decline fast enough to prevent the accumulation of implausible levels of US external debt would impose capital losses on investors much larger than they currently expect. As a result, there will at some point have to be a 'Wile E. Coyote moment'– a point at which expectations are revised, and the dollar drops sharply. It is much less clear, however, whether this 'crisis' will produce macroeconomic problems.
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Economic Policy is now available in JSTOR! |
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