Brazilian legislation in the early 2000s that banned the carrying of weapons nationwide led to 4,400 lives being saved in the following year alone. The prohibition reduced gun-related homicides by 12.2% and total gunshot wounds that were ‘intended to kill’ by 16.3% – effects that were especially pronounced among young black men living in high-crime areas.

These are among the findings of a new research report by Rodrigo Schneider of Skidmore College. Using the most conservative ‘value of statistical life’ in Brazil, his estimates of the reduction in gun-related homicides caused by the regulation indicates that it generated an economic value of $3.4 billion in one year.

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Recent attempts to ease gun restrictions in Brazil by President Bolsonaro, which followed his campaign promises in late 2018 to change gun laws so that more Brazilians can bear arms for self-defence, underscore the importance of studies analysing the consequences of gun policies and measurements of their cost-effectiveness.

This study adds to current knowledge on laws regulating access to gun by examining empirically the effects of restricting the right to carry weapons. The author finds that within one year on its implementation, prohibiting gun-carrying in Brazil reduced gun-related homicides by 12.2% and total gunshot wounds that were ‘intended to kill’ by 16.3%. These effects were especially pronounced among young black men living in high-crime areas.

In 2003, the Brazilian Congress approved legislation that banned the carrying of weapons nationwide and provided for a voter referendum 22 months later regarding whether to ban the sale of all firearms in Brazil. In 2004, due to the implementation of the law, 4,400 lives were saved.

The analysis finds that other crimes involving guns, such as robberies, also declined. In addition, there is no evidence of substitution effect as non-gun-related homicides and other non-gun-related crimes were not affected by the legislation.

Two pieces of evidence suggest that the mechanism explaining this result is a decrease in the number of people carrying guns in response to the legislation: first, the number of illegal gun-carrying decreased; and second, only gun-related homicides taking place outside the residence were reduced.

Analysis of the subsequent voter referendum, which was defeated by a wide margin, shows stronger support for the complete weapons ban in the areas more affected by gun violence.

Using the value of statistical life in Brazil and the author’s estimation of the reduction in gun-related homicides caused by the regulation, he can make the following claim: the prohibition of the right to carry concealed weapons generated an economic value of $3.4 billion in one year.

This number is about six times the value of the Australian gun buyback, which is an especially relevant finding if one considers that the value of statistical life in Australia is, on average, 3.2 times larger than Brazil.

It is important to highlight that this calculation is likely to be understated because it considers only the most conservative value of statistical life in Brazil, and it ignores the gains from less hospitalisation caused by a decrease in gunshot wounds and the gains from a decrease in robbery – that is, non-gun-related homicides and other crimes.

‘Crime and political effects of a right-to-carry ban in Brazil’

Author:

Rodrigo Schneider (Skidmore College)