A new report brings together a broad swathe of evidence from economic research, to shed light on the likely consequences of the conflict in Ukraine. The study by Felipe Valencia Caicedo, Ana Tur-Prats and colleagues revisits three topics that are especially relevant for the current Ukrainian context:

• The negative long-term impact of bombing campaigns and political repression against civilians.
• The interplay between forced migration, refugees and conflict.
• The role of gender and war, with a special focus on sex ratios and conflict-related sexual violence.

The researchers also undertake an empirical investigation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, including historical determinants such as ethnic populations, historical political repression and voting outcomes. They find a negative correlation between recent political participation and modern attacks.

They also find a strong positive correlation between the historical presence of ethnic Russians and current conflict, as well as a negative one between modern conflict and Holodomor famine deaths (an extreme form of repression), both within Ukraine.

The study concludes with some policy lessons that could inform the process of conflict resolution. First, from the long-term consequences of bombing, the de-mining agenda should become a priority in a post-war scenario, to avoid a ‘conflict trap’ where human capital and other key investments are halted.

With regards to political repression, the consequences can be long lasting, as the social cohesion and trust between the citizenry and the state can be deeply eroded. The collective memory of historical events is also a powerful mechanism that could end up providing the necessary closure after a traumatic occurrence, along with the work of truth and reconciliation commissions.

With respect to migration and conflict, refugees should be integrated into regions with more promising labour market outcomes, something that is often not possible due to political considerations. Historically wealthier and younger people might have an easier time integrating, while women have a harder time, on average. Human capital and training programmes could take into account these realities to maximise their impact and minimise socio-economic vulnerabilities.

Gender emerges as an important component in research on conflict. Sex ratios imbalances can also have a long-term effect if they change the cultural norms with respect to work and leisure. Conflict can affect female labour force participation and marriage patterns, not only in the short run, and even in developed countries.

Although the sex ratio imbalances in Ukraine might not be as extreme as in other conflicts, policy-makers can help mitigate their negative consequences while encouraging the positive ones. Perhaps the most important one to avoid is the plight of conflict-related sexual violence, a war crime that should be prosecuted in local and international courts, while bringing full assistance and support to the affected victims.

---

‘The Legacies of War for Post-Conflict Ukraine’

Authors:

Ellen Munroe (London School of Economics)
Anastasiia Nosach (Statistics Canada)
Moisés Pedrozo (Universidad Católica de Asunción)
Eleonora Guarnieri (University of Exeter)
Juan Felipe Riaño (Stanford University)
Ana Tur-Prats (Univeristy of California, Merced)
Felipe Valencia Caicedo (University of British Columbia)